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How the government got hedge funded

The U.S. Treasury market, long seen as the bedrock of global finance, is undergoing a quiet transformation. Behind the scenes, a new set of players is reshaping how the government funds itself—hedge funds leveraging complex trades to profit from tiny market inefficiencies. But as their influence grows, so do concerns about what could happen if things go wrong.
Hedge funds have increasingly entered the U.S. Treasury market, stepping in after banks pulled back post-2008. They engage in the 'Treasury basis trade,' borrowing from money-market funds to buy Treasurys while hedging with futures, profiting from small yield gaps. This leveraged strategy, now worth around $800 billion, enhances market liquidity but introduces systemic risk. A sudden shock—like the 2020 pandemic sell-off—could trigger a rush for cash, collapsing collateral values and forcing central bank intervention. Regulators worry that reliance on lightly regulated hedge funds creates moral hazard, with firms potentially taking excessive risks expecting bailouts. While these actors help finance massive government debt, their role raises urgent questions about financial stability, oversight, and who ultimately bears the risk when the system wobbles.
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The 120-second Treasury auction reveals real-time market sentiment.
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Hedge funds now play a critical role in Treasury market liquidity by engaging in the basis trade.
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About $800 billion is currently involved in the treasury basis trade
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The Treasury basis trade collapsed in March 2020 due to pandemic-driven market stress.
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Hedge funds may take bigger risks expecting government bailouts due to their critical role in Treasury markets.