Everything is gambling now
The Vergecast
2 DAYS AGO
Everything is gambling now
Everything is gambling now

The Vergecast
2 DAYS AGO
Shownote
Shownote
Who's going to win the Super Bowl? What about the latest season of Survivor? Or the race to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve? Who will be Portugal's next president? How many times will Elon Musk tweet in the next week? On Polymarket, and other pred...
Highlights
Highlights
Prediction markets are no longer niche experiments—they're evolving into powerful tools for forecasting real-world outcomes, from elections to cultural trends. Meanwhile, a quiet but transformative shift is underway in AI infrastructure, with new protocols poised to redefine how intelligent systems interact with the digital world. This episode unpacks both phenomena, exploring how markets aggregate belief and how emerging standards could unlock the next generation of AI agents.
Chapters
Chapters
When Betting Becomes Belief: How Prediction Markets Turn Opinions Into Data
00:00Who Watches the Predictors? The Regulatory Gray Zone of Event Markets
13:03Can We Trust the Crowd? Using Prediction Markets as Real-Time Sentiment Sensors
24:11What Is MCP—and Why Is All of Tech Racing to Adopt It?
41:03From Booking Flights to Browsing Stores: Can AI Agents Finally Act on Our Behalf?
57:00Why Is Every AI Trying to Shop for Me? The Business Behind Digital Assistants
1:13:08What Comes Next: Wrapping Up AI Agents, Prediction Markets, and the Future of Automated Decisions
1:23:50Transcript
Transcript
David Pierce: Welcome to the The Vergecast, the flagship podcast of the difference between tool use and computer use. I'm your friend David Pierce, and I am almost done setting up my new studio, I mean, studio is strong. I'm at my desk. I have some lights....