scripod.com

Everything is gambling now

The Vergecast

2 DAYS AGO
The Vergecast

The Vergecast

2 DAYS AGO

Shownote

Who's going to win the Super Bowl? What about the latest season of Survivor? Or the race to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve? Who will be Portugal's next president? How many times will Elon Musk tweet in the next week? On Polymarket, and other pred...

Highlights

Prediction markets are no longer niche experiments—they're evolving into powerful tools for forecasting real-world outcomes, from elections to cultural trends. Meanwhile, a quiet but transformative shift is underway in AI infrastructure, with new protocols poised to redefine how intelligent systems interact with the digital world. This episode unpacks both phenomena, exploring how markets aggregate belief and how emerging standards could unlock the next generation of AI agents.
15:50
Insider trading concerns threaten liquidity and participation in prediction markets
24:11
U.S. Government bond market is a type of prediction market.
54:35
MCP is widely seen as the standard without much persuasion.
1:05:02
MCP could enable automatic hotel booking upon flight confirmation
1:21:25
ChatGPT could directly handle purchases using stored credit card information to improve user experience and earn commissions.

Chapters

When Betting Becomes Belief: How Prediction Markets Turn Opinions Into Data
00:00
Who Watches the Predictors? The Regulatory Gray Zone of Event Markets
13:03
Can We Trust the Crowd? Using Prediction Markets as Real-Time Sentiment Sensors
24:11
What Is MCP—and Why Is All of Tech Racing to Adopt It?
41:03
From Booking Flights to Browsing Stores: Can AI Agents Finally Act on Our Behalf?
57:00
Why Is Every AI Trying to Shop for Me? The Business Behind Digital Assistants
1:13:08
What Comes Next: Wrapping Up AI Agents, Prediction Markets, and the Future of Automated Decisions
1:23:50

Transcript

David Pierce: Welcome to the The Vergecast, the flagship podcast of the difference between tool use and computer use. I'm your friend David Pierce, and I am almost done setting up my new studio, I mean, studio is strong. I'm at my desk. I have some lights....