Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
Dwarkesh Podcast
Nov 12
Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI

Dwarkesh Podcast
Nov 12
In this in-depth conversation, Satya Nadella opens the doors to Microsoft's next-generation AI infrastructure, offering a rare glimpse into the company's vision for the future of artificial intelligence. The discussion moves beyond hardware to explore how Microsoft is redefining its role in an era defined by autonomous agents, massive computational demand, and global technological competition.
Microsoft is building Fairwater datacenters with unprecedented scale—each housing hundreds of thousands of GPUs and over 2 GW of total capacity—enabling AI training capacity to grow tenfold every 18–24 months. To manage rising COGS from compute-heavy AI, Microsoft leverages hybrid business models across subscriptions, consumption, and devices. While Copilot has reached 26 million subscribers, the broader AI coding market is expanding rapidly, allowing room for competition. Microsoft sees long-term value not just in models but in the infrastructure layer supporting autonomous agents across M365 and Windows 365. It’s investing in custom AI chips, partnering with NVIDIA and OpenAI (hosted exclusively on Azure), and renting capacity via NeoClouds to meet immediate demand. With CAPEX surging, Microsoft treats compute as R&D, balancing capital intensity with software-driven efficiency. Globally, it navigates data sovereignty demands by aligning with national policies while maintaining trust in U.S. tech leadership.
02:39
02:39
New chips like Vera Rubin Ultra will require adaptive data center designs due to varying power density and cooling needs.
12:23
12:23
AI will expand the market massively, as seen with coding assistants in GitHub and VS Code
15:27
15:27
The AI coding market grew 10x in one year, from $500 million to $5–6 billion.
20:02
20:02
Winning the scaffolding may lead to vertical integration into the model
41:21
41:21
There won't be a single dominant AI model across all domains and geographies.
1:01:42
1:01:42
Microsoft opts to rent capacity from NeoClouds instead of building all infrastructure in-house
1:12:24
1:12:24
Research compute should be treated as R&D expense to sustain AGI progress
1:26:41
1:26:41
Trust in American tech is more important than model capability alone.