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Uncapped #27 | Vince Hankes from Thrive Capital

Shownote

Vince Hankes is a Partner at Thrive Capital where he’s worked on investments in OpenAI, SpaceX, Databricks, and Stripe among others. Vince invests across all stages and currently sits on the board of Airtable, Benchling, Console, Isomorphic, Lattice and Rogo. Prior to joining Thrive, Vince was an investor at Tiger Global. We covered: Non-consensus investing Writing billion dollar checks Buying Carvana at the bottom The value of compounding What matters most to Thrive --- Timestamps: (0:00) Intro (0:50) The evolution of Thrive (4:22) Instagram, Github, and Stripe (7:57) Qualitative, then quantitative (9:39) Writing massive checks (16:48) Winning strategies in venture (25:58) Buying Carvana at the bottom (32:50) Managing conflicts (36:13) AI’s impact on the market (42:25) East meets West Coast investors (45:19) Vertical specific workspaces (49:53) Scale and timing of robotics (51:31) OpenAI vs everything else (55:59) What matters most for Thrive --- More on Vince: https://x.com/vhankes https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-hankes/ More on Jack: https://www.altcap.com/ https://x.com/jaltma --- https://linktr.ee/uncappedpod Email: friends@uncappedpod.com --- This episode is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities. The discussion herein similarly does not constitute a solicitation with respect to any Thrive fund or an offer of investment advisory services. Investments identified herein are discussed solely for illustrative purposes and there is no guarantee that current or future investments of Thrive will be similar in quality or kind.

Highlights

In this episode, Vince Hankes of Thrive Capital shares insights into the firm's unique investment philosophy and its evolution into one of the most influential players in venture capital. From early bets on now-iconic tech companies to deploying billion-dollar checks with unwavering conviction, the conversation dives into the mindset behind high-impact investing in transformative technologies.
06:35
Invested nearly $2 billion in Stripe in early 2023 despite post-COVID skepticism
09:39
Winners are getting bigger: the number of $100 billion tech companies is growing faster than $10 billion ones.
23:39
Writing billion-dollar checks allows access to exclusive late-stage deals with less competition
28:21
Doubled shares in Carvana at a low price despite psychological and LP pressure
32:53
Being the accounting firm is the best way to play accounting in AI.
36:13
Isomorphic aims to cure all diseases by simulating wet-lab experiments computationally.
44:45
OpenAI has built significant IP in efficient inference and model infrastructure.
45:19
Lawyers and doctors are unexpected early adopters of AI due to workflow compatibility and FOMO.
50:00
Robotics could be at the same stage as self-driving cars in 2015
53:52
Few opportunities offer a better risk-adjusted return than OpenAI, though risk is unavoidable.
55:59
Attracting talented and ambitious young people is crucial for Thrive's next phase

Chapters

Intro
00:00
The evolution of Thrive
00:50
Instagram, Github, and Stripe
04:22
Qualitative, then quantitative
07:57
Writing massive checks
09:39
Winning strategies in venture
16:48
Buying Carvana at the bottom
25:58
Managing conflicts
32:50
AI’s impact on the market
36:13
East meets West Coast investors
42:25
Vertical specific workspaces
45:19
Scale and timing of robotics
49:53
OpenAI vs everything else
51:31
What matters most for Thrive
55:59

Transcript

Vince Hankes: There's a different way of thinking about concentration, which is when you write a billion dollars into a company, you have to have conviction. You can't be like, on the fence about is this going to work or not. You have to have almost dogmat...