Sarah Paine — How Imperial Japan defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jul 25
Sarah Paine — How Imperial Japan defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China
Sarah Paine — How Imperial Japan defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jul 25
This podcast episode delves into the historical transformation of Japan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, focusing on how a relatively small nation managed to rise as a dominant power in East Asia. The discussion centers on Japan's strategic modernization during the Meiji era and how it allowed the country to defeat larger and seemingly more powerful nations like China and Russia. Key military conflicts, such as the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, are examined to uncover the geopolitical and institutional factors that enabled Japan’s ascent.
Japan’s Meiji reforms (1869–1890) were a comprehensive effort to westernize and modernize its military, economy, and society in response to Western imperial threats. Unlike China, which resisted systemic change and suffered internal decline, Japan successfully integrated Western practices, enhancing its national power. Japan’s victory in the First Sino-Japanese War established its regional dominance and led to strategic alliances. The Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905) was a turning point, where Japan’s surprise attack on Port Arthur and effective military logistics led to a decisive win. This victory not only cemented Japan’s status as a major power but also influenced later strategies, such as the Pearl Harbor attack. The discussion also explores why larger countries like Russia and China lost wars despite their size, emphasizing leadership, logistics, and institutional quality. Finally, the episode touches on grand strategy, highlighting the importance of diplomacy, preventive investments, and learning from global examples.
12:20
12:20
Japan's Meiji reforms led to juridical equality with Western powers by 1890.
17:49
17:49
Japan gained Taiwan and the Pescadores after defeating China
35:35
35:35
The Japanese captured the 203-meter hill, enabling them to sink Russian battleships in Port Arthur.
57:30
57:30
Russia sent 100,000 troops to Manchuria during the Boxer Rebellion and refused to withdraw.
1:05:46
1:05:46
Japan's literate population and Meiji reforms enabled effective war mobilization.
1:32:28
1:32:28
The Meiji reforms influenced Deng Xiaoping's policies and those of the Four Little Tigers.
1:45:51
1:45:51
It's better to make people fear you than love you, but never make them hate you.
1:49:34
1:49:34
The State Department's role in preventing catastrophes like Indo-Pakistani nuclear war