Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

Dwarkesh Podcast

Jul 03

Overview Shownote Highlights Transcript Chapters Pins

Shownote

I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years. Here’s an audio version of where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. If you want to read the original post, you can che...

Highlights

In this episode, Dwarkesh Patel explores the current state and future trajectory of artificial intelligence, focusing on whether transformative AI is just around the corner or still decades away. He evaluates the capabilities and limitations of today’s large language models and examines what needs to change for AI to truly reshape industries.

02:42

LLMs can't learn user preferences over time, limiting their utility in automating white-collar jobs.

05:17

Solving continuous learning could lead to an intelligence explosion.

Chapters

Why AGI Isn't Around the Corner: The Limits of Today's AI

00:00

Between Skepticism and Hope: What Needs to Change for AI to Advance?

05:17

The Road to 2030: Milestones That Could Signal Real AI Progress

10:44

Transcript

Dwarkesh Patel: Okay, this is a narration of a blog post I wrote on June 3rd, 2025, titled, Why I Don't Think AGI is Right Around the Corner. Quote, Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they co...