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Xi Jinping’s paranoid approach to AGI, debt crisis, & Politburo politics — Victor Shih

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Xi Jinping’s paranoid approach to AGI, debt crisis, & Politburo politics — Victor Shih

Dwarkesh Podcast

May 29
Dwarkesh Podcast

Dwarkesh Podcast

May 29
OverviewShownoteHighlightsTranscriptChaptersPins

Shownote

On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih about all things China. We discuss China’s massive local debt crisis, the CCP’s views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more. Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and f...

Highlights

In this episode, the host delves into China's complex political and economic landscape with expert Victor Shih. The conversation explores key issues such as the local debt crisis, artificial intelligence policies, and the future of leadership post-Xi Jinping. Shih's insights provide a nuanced understanding of China's governance challenges and its global ambitions.
00:00
Fiscal decentralization led to private-sector-driven growth.
18:35
Xi has a good political nose, especially in controlling the party and military.
27:34
The Chinese government wants to invest in AGI but retains control mechanisms to halt subversive content.
35:51
DeepSeek prioritizes Chinese government policy documents and meetings.
39:27
Xi Jinping learned to ensure he's on the winning side in political struggles.
48:49
Chinese provinces fund AI initiatives through financial repression and low deposit rates.
55:53
Financial repression and currency devaluation may decrease the average person's quality of life
1:04:04
Corruption in China links investment and promotion through kickbacks and land deals.
1:09:58
China's savings are highly concentrated, mainly benefiting the wealthy.
1:10:48
Xi Jinping sincerely wants China's unification but is not reckless.
1:14:03
Top leadership listens to experts but may face conflicting advice from different interest-groups.
1:22:02
Military industrialists in the Politburo could be stabilizing.
1:25:16
China's economy may be 70% of the U.S. in real income by 2040

Chapters

Is China more decentralized than the US?
00:00
How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions
03:16
Xi’s right hand man in charge of AGI
21:07
DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy
35:37
Xi versus Stalin
39:26
Local government debt crisis
45:35
Financial repression & capital controls
50:00
How corruption leads to overbuilding
58:12
How China can solve its debt problem
1:06:58
Probability of Taiwan invasion
1:10:46
Is Xi getting bad intel?
1:13:57
What happens after Xi
1:18:56
Future growth forecasts
1:25:10

Transcript

Dwarkesh Patel: Today, I'm talking with Victor Shih, who is the director of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego. China is obviously the most important economic and geopolitical issue over time, and doubly so, if you believe what I believe about A...