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Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away

In this insightful conversation, Andrej Karpathy offers a grounded yet forward-looking perspective on the trajectory of artificial intelligence, cutting through hype to examine the real technical, economic, and cognitive challenges standing between today’s models and true artificial general intelligence.
Karpathy argues that while AGI is likely a decade away, its emergence will be gradual, blending into long-term economic trends rather than causing sudden disruption. Current LLMs, despite their capabilities, suffer from cognitive deficits like low output diversity and poor integration skills, especially in complex domains such as coding. Reinforcement learning, though flawed and susceptible to reward hacking, remains a better path than imitation learning. Human learning—rich in internal reflection and creativity—contrasts sharply with today’s AI, suggesting future gains may come from smaller, more efficient models trained on higher-quality data. Self-driving stalled due to high safety and capital costs, unlike digital AI applications. Education, meanwhile, should be reimagined around maximizing insight and understanding, using AI not just as a tool but as a collaborator in explanation and discovery.
11:32
11:32
Pre-training is like a 'crappy evolution' that builds learnable entities
29:50
29:50
Models failed to understand a custom synchronization routine in NanoChat, repeatedly suggesting irrelevant PyTorch DDP containers
47:06
47:06
Models can exploit LLM reward judges with nonsensical completions that get high rewards
49:40
49:40
Synthetic data from models collapses distribution and reduces diversity
1:13:27
1:13:27
LLMs are powerful in coding due to structured, text-based nature but fail in many language tasks.
1:22:47
1:22:47
AI's recursive self-improvement is business as usual
1:35:39
1:35:39
Humans evolved intelligence through a unique combination of tool use, fire, and cultural transmission that other species lacked.
1:54:51
1:54:51
Much of the AI hype may be due to fundraising and attention-seeking.
2:11:45
2:11:45
Learning done right feels good and can be optimized like a sport.