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How to measure AI developer productivity in 2025 | Nicole Forsgren

In this insightful conversation, Nicole Forsgren unpacks the evolving landscape of developer productivity in the AI era, moving beyond outdated metrics to explore how teams can truly accelerate through better developer experience. She emphasizes that sustainable speed comes not from measuring output, but from fostering conditions where engineers can thrive cognitively and emotionally.
Traditional productivity metrics like lines of code are misleading, especially with AI generating large volumes of unverified code. Instead, true engineering performance hinges on developer experience (DevEx), which prioritizes flow state, manageable cognitive load, and rapid feedback loops. AI can enhance productivity by automating routine tasks and aiding prototyping, but it also introduces new challenges—such as increased review burden and disrupted focus—that can hinder deep work. The key is to treat DevEx as a product, using structured frameworks like the upcoming seven-step model in *Frictionless* to identify pain points, run experiments, and measure impact through both developer-centric and business-aligned outcomes. Early wins come from lightweight process improvements and strong leadership support, while long-term gains require dedicated DevEx teams that use well-designed surveys and telemetry to guide change. Ultimately, AI’s value is maximized not in isolation, but when integrated into a holistic strategy that values human judgment, team health, and purposeful innovation.
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Productivity gains through high-friction methods risk long-term developer burnout.
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Senior engineers use clear goals and fast feedback loops to maintain flow with AI
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Trust is a key missing dimension in evaluating AI-assisted development
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Rapid prototyping and A/B testing that used to take days can now be done in hours thanks to improved DevEx.
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Start by asking developers about their work and pain points to identify friction.
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Flaky tests and broken builds are key indicators of productivity bottlenecks.
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Regular users' output can double with AI assistance
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Developer experience is about making developers happier and more productive by removing friction and reducing cognitive load
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Quick wins at small scale can build momentum for developer experience improvements
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AI gains follow a J-curve: quick wins, slowdown, then compounded benefits after infrastructure build-out
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Cleaning test and build suites saves developer time and reduces cloud costs.
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Start by talking to developers to understand their challenges before implementing metrics.
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Satisfaction surveys are more useful than happiness surveys for work-related feedback
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Claude Code can perform various tasks on the computer, not just coding.
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Treat developer experience improvements as product initiatives with MVPs, experiments, and customer feedback loops.
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ChatGPT can generate an image of your house based on past conversations.
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Accept decisions made with available information at the time as part of personal growth