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"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff

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"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff

Dwarkesh Podcast

Jun 12
Dwarkesh Podcast

Dwarkesh Podcast

Jun 12
OverviewShownoteHighlightsTranscriptChaptersPins

Shownote

Ken Rogoff is the former chief economist of the IMF, a professor of Economics at Harvard, and author of the newly released Our Dollar, Your Problem and This Time is Different. On this episode, Ken predicts that, within the next decade, the US will have a ...

Highlights

In this episode, renowned economist Ken Rogoff discusses the global economic landscape, focusing on China's stagnation, the potential for a US debt-induced inflation crisis, and the erosion of dollar dominance. He delves into how structural issues in China and global shifts may reshape economic power dynamics, while also examining the role of AGI and rising interest rates in future fiscal challenges.
02:46
China's current crisis was sown in 2010 with a large stimulus.
32:21
Financial crises are much worse than normal recessions.
43:33
Market rationality on US government debt questioned; Fed's independence debated.
1:05:21
Real interest rates might need to go up to handle AI-driven deflation
1:10:20
Interest rates will rise due to rising debt, remilitarization, and geopolitical fracturing.
1:11:02
Foreign equities, especially in Europe, may outperform U.S. equities
1:22:24
The US dollar's 'exorbitant privilege' incentivizes unsustainable debt but saves billions in interest.

Chapters

China is stagnating
00:00
How the US broke Japan's economy
25:46
America's inflation crisis is coming
37:06
Will AGI solve the US deficit?
1:02:20
Why interest rates will go up
1:07:11
US equities will underperform
1:10:55
The erosion of dollar dominance
1:22:24

Transcript

Dwarkesh Patel: Today, I'm speaking with Ken Rogoff, who is a professor at Harvard, author recently of Our Dollar, Your Problem, former chief economist at the IMF. Ken, thanks so much for coming on the podcast. Ken Rogoff: Thanks so much for having me, an...