"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jun 12
"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff
"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jun 12
In this episode, renowned economist Ken Rogoff discusses the global economic landscape, focusing on China's stagnation, the potential for a US debt-induced inflation crisis, and the erosion of dollar dominance. He delves into how structural issues in China and global shifts may reshape economic power dynamics, while also examining the role of AGI and rising interest rates in future fiscal challenges.
Rogoff outlines a deepening crisis in China's economy due to overbuilding and financial repression, contrasting it with the US's strengths and weaknesses. He reflects on Japan's economic decline, attributing it to demographics and missteps in financial liberalization, emphasizing that financial crises are more damaging than typical recessions. The US faces an impending inflation crisis, potentially reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio but leading to higher interest rates. AGI might boost productivity to address fiscal issues, yet political decisions could limit its impact. Rising global factors such as debt, climate change, and geopolitical tensions suggest increasing interest rates. A shift in investment is anticipated, with foreign equities expected to outperform US equities. Lastly, the discussion touches on the erosion of the dollar's dominance, questioning its reliability for foreign investors amidst global economic adjustments.
02:46
02:46
China's current crisis was sown in 2010 with a large stimulus.
32:21
32:21
Financial crises are much worse than normal recessions.
43:33
43:33
Market rationality on US government debt questioned; Fed's independence debated.
1:05:21
1:05:21
Real interest rates might need to go up to handle AI-driven deflation
1:10:20
1:10:20
Interest rates will rise due to rising debt, remilitarization, and geopolitical fracturing.
1:11:02
1:11:02
Foreign equities, especially in Europe, may outperform U.S. equities
1:22:24
1:22:24
The US dollar's 'exorbitant privilege' incentivizes unsustainable debt but saves billions in interest.